Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
